Random the Book

Questions for you:

• When have you continued pursuing something because you felt you were “almost there” – and how did you determine whether that feeling reflected reality or psychological manipulation?
• Especially focussing on gambling contexts, where are you given the impression that you’ve almost won, and maybe you just need to bet a little more, and a win is inevitable? And how does this differ from the published odds of victory?
• How would your decision-making change if you explicitly tracked the actual probability of success rather than relying on how close you felt to winning? Especially if you gamble, can you try doing this, just for a couple of weeks?
• What systems or interfaces in your daily life are designed to keep you engaged through manufactured feelings of progress rather than transparent information about outcomes?

Organisational applications:

Product engagement metrics: Audit the user interfaces presented to you and your colleagues for features that create a false sense of proximity to goals. Review whether progress indicators genuinely reflect progress or are calibrated to maximise continued engagement regardless of the likelihood of actual achievement.

Performance incentive design: Examine bonus structures and performance targets for “near-miss” effects where employees repeatedly approach but narrowly miss thresholds. Restructure systems to avoid the demotivation that comes from engineered proximity without achievement.

Sales pipeline management: Implement probability-based forecasting that acknowledges each opportunity’s true likelihood rather than assuming advancement through stages indicates increasing certainty, or that a “you’ve got to be in it to win it” mentality, devoting some effort to every possible bid, is the best use of resources.

Service quality monitoring: Review customer satisfaction surveys and complaint-resolution processes to identify metrics indicating “almost resolved” or “nearly satisfactory” outcomes. These may mask persistent problems with your products and services and/or people being unwilling to report abject failures – are they creating an illusion that prevents you from addressing underlying issues.

Further reading

Psychology of gambling and decision-making

• Addiction by Design by Natasha Dow Schüll – anthropological study of machine gambling in Las Vegas, documenting how slot machines are engineered to create the “machine zone” where players lose track of time, money, and intention. Particularly strong on explaining how near-misses are deliberately programmed rather than genuinely random occurrences.
• Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman – explores the two systems of human thinking and how the intuitive system consistently misjudges probability. The chapters on prospect theory explain why near-misses feel meaningful even when they provide no information about future outcomes.
• “The psychology of the fruit machine” by Jonathan Parke and Mark Griffiths in International Journal of Mental Health and Addiction – academic review of how structural characteristics of slot machines exploit cognitive biases, with specific focus on how near-miss programming creates illusions of control and skill.

Game design and behavioural manipulation

• Actionable Gamification by Yu-kai Chou – framework for understanding how game mechanics influence behaviour, including the “epic meaning” and “unpredictability” drives that near-miss effects exploit. Written by a designer who later became critical of manipulative implementations.
• Gamification by Design by Gabe Zichermann and Christopher Cunningham – practical guide to engagement mechanics that includes frank discussion of ethical boundaries, with specific attention to the difference between motivating progress and manufacturing false proximity to goals.
• “Predatory monetization schemes in video games” by Daniel King and Paul Delfabbro in Addiction – examines how loot boxes and similar mechanisms in video games use near-miss psychology originally developed for gambling machines, raising questions about whether these constitute gambling by another name.

Probability and risk communication

• Reckoning with Risk by Gerd Gigerenzer – demonstrates how even educated professionals consistently misunderstand probability, with practical strategies for communicating risk accurately. Particularly relevant to understanding why “almost winning” misleads us about actual odds.
• The Drunkard’s Walk by Leonard Mlodinow – accessible exploration of how randomness operates in daily life and why human intuition consistently fails to grasp it. Includes examples of how casinos exploit these misunderstandings through both game design and physical environment.
• “The psychology of the near miss” by Robert Reid in Journal of Gambling Behavior – foundational academic paper establishing that near-misses in gambling produce similar physiological responses to actual wins despite providing no increased probability of future success, explaining why this effect is so powerful and persistent.

Interactive exhibit

See whether you feel differently about a slot machine designed to give more near-misses… https://experiments.randomthebook.com/slots/index.html

About the image

I still adore these Penny Falls machines that you find in British seaside amusement arcades. They are masterful in their manipulation. Thanks to Tony Harper for the photo.

Photo Tony Harper 2025, Photo montage Matt Ballantine, 2026