Questions for you:
- When have I experienced a disruptive event that ultimately created better outcomes than stability would have?
- Am I trying to eliminate all unpredictability from my work, and life, or am I leaving space for productive chaos?
- Do I see disruption as always negative, or can I recognise when it creates necessary renewal?
Organisational applications:
Deliberate disruption as a renewal mechanism:
Like forest ecosystems evolved with fire as regular renewal, creating complex regeneration mosaics, organisations should implement periodic disruptions as essential renewal rather than stability preservation. Instead of suppressing all organisational “fires” (restructures, project cancellations, strategic pivots), recognise that some disruptions generate necessary complexity and diversity. Implement “controlled burns”—deliberately disrupting stable but stagnant departments, cancelling zombie projects consuming resources without producing value, or force team reorganisations, breaking calcified reporting structures. Track whether periodic controlled disruptions produce a more adaptive organisation. There is an ecological parallel: attempting to eliminate all fire eventually produces catastrophic uncontrollable burns; similarly, organisations suppressing all disruption accumulate organisational “fuel” leading to explosive failures.
Unpredictable disturbance patterns over equilibrium optimisation:
Fire ecology reveals biodiversity results from random habitat disruption, creating opportunities for different species rather than competitive optimisation, producing predictable outcomes. Apply this principle organisationally: rather than optimising for a single stable “optimal” state, maintain a portfolio of diverse approaches, knowing unpredictable market disruptions will favour different strategies. Like fire-adapted plants colonising burned areas whilst fire-sensitive species persist in randomly spared patches, maintain the capability to respond differently to disruptions. Some teams optimised for efficiency, others for resilience; some products targeting mainstream, others serving niches. Over time, and it will take considerable time, track whether that diverse portfolio of approaches outperforms ptimised monocultures when facing unpredictable disruptions. The challenge: resisting organisational instinct to standardise everything around an apparently “optimal” current approach.
Random pattern recognition in resource allocation:
Forest fires create patterns following random ignition amplified by local conditions—wind, fuel moisture, topography existing independently of ecological “plan.” Organisations similarly face unpredictable disruptions (customer demands, competitive threats, technological shifts, regulatory changes) that propagate through internal systems, driven by local conditions. Rather than assuming that centrally planned resource allocation prevents all fires, recognise that some disruptions will propagate unpredictably. Implement rapid-response capabilities, mobilising resources to unexpected burning issues rather than rigid allocation plans that ignore emergent problems. A local and flexible response to unpredictable disruptions can result in solutions being implemented before slower centralised approaches could even see the problem.
Complexity generation through unplanned variation:
Climate change and fire suppression policies aim to control natural fire patterns but cannot eliminate the fundamental randomness. Similarly, organisations attempting perfect predictability through comprehensive planning eliminate the productive chaos generating innovation. As in fire ecology, where unpredictable disturbance patterns create habitat complexity, organisational creativity often emerges from unplanned disruptions, forcing novel responses. Maintain “spaces” where projects can fail, experiments can produce unexpected results, and market disruptions are responded to with adaptation—recognising these create the organisational equivalent of biodiversity. Track whether parts of your organisation that tolerate productive chaos generate more innovation than those that optimise for stability and predictability.
Further Reading: “What if chaos is the point?”
On fire ecology and natural disturbance:
The Control of Nature by John McPhee (Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1989). Includes examination of attempts to control natural processes like fire and flooding, demonstrating how suppressing natural randomness often produces catastrophic consequences.
On chaos and complexity in systems:
The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph A. Tainter (Cambridge University Press, 1988). Examination of how complex systems fail including role of unpredictable disruptions and the dangers of optimising for stability whilst eliminating adaptive capacity.
Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Random House, 2012). Framework for building systems benefiting from volatility and disruption rather than merely resisting chaos, philosophical foundation for embracing productive disruption.
A Crude Look at the Whole: The Science of Complex Systems in Business, Life, and Society by John H. Miller (Basic Books, 2015). Accessible introduction to complexity science including how unpredictable disturbances generate system diversity and adaptability.
On organisational disruption and renewal:
Creative Destruction: Why Companies That Are Built to Last Underperform the Market—And How to Successfully Transform Them by Richard N. Foster and Sarah Kaplan (Currency, 2001). Examination of how organisations need periodic disruption and renewal rather than continuous optimisation for stability.
The Upside of Turbulence: Seizing Opportunity in an Uncertain World by Donald Sull (HarperBusiness, 2009). Framework for thriving on disruption rather than attempting to eliminate uncertainty through perfect planning.
About the image
Thursley Common in Surrey is one of my wife and I’s favourites places to walk in the area surrounding London. About eight years ago it was the scene of a massive woods and heathland fire. These are the remains one of the trees caught in the flames.
Photo and photomontage Matt Ballantine 2026
Random the Book 