Questions for you:
- Which of the uncertainty frameworks (VUCA, BANI, RUPT, TUNA) most accurately describes my current environment?
- Do I treat uncertainty as an aberration to be eliminated, or as a fundamental condition to be navigated?
- How has my tolerance for ambiguity and unpredictability changed over time?
Organisational applications:
Uncertainty framework selection and evolution:
Rather than treating VUCA as an eternal truth, recognise these acronyms (VUCA, BANI, RUPT, TUNA) reflect evolving attempts to articulate specific historical moments. VUCA emerged post-Cold War; BANI arose during climate anxiety and pandemic disruption; RUPT emphasised acceleration; TUNA highlighted unprecedented phenomena. Each framework privileges certain aspects of uncertainty whilst downplaying others. Conduct periodic “uncertainty audits” where leadership teams assess which framework best describes their current environment rather than defaulting to whichever acronym is fashionable. Document whether framework-appropriate strategies outperform generic “deal with uncertainty” approaches. The world might not be objectively more random, but our sensitivity to nonlinearity and our inability to predict outcomes from initial conditions have increased.
Non-linearity acknowledgement in planning:
VUCA’s “Complexity” and BANI’s “Nonlinear” both highlight the same phenomenon: cause-and-effect relationships aren’t straightforward. Small inputs produce disproportionate outputs; great efforts yield negligible results. Yet most organisational planning assumes linear relationships—double marketing spend, double sales; add 20% staff, increase output 20%. Build explicit non-linearity assumptions into forecasting models. Create “complexity budgets” acknowledging that some initiatives will yield 10x expected results, whilst others produce nothing despite identical investment. Track whether non-linear planning produces more realistic expectations versus traditional linear projections that systematically disappoint when randomness intervenes.
Capability development for genuine uncertainty:
Distinguish between managing known risks (quantifiable probabilities, established mitigation strategies) and navigating genuine uncertainty (unknown probabilities, novel situations). Most “risk management” training addresses the former whilst claiming to prepare for the latter. TUNA’s emphasis on “Novel” and BANI’s “Incomprehensible” point to truly unprecedented situations that require different capabilities. Develop organisational muscles for operating under genuine ignorance: rapid experimentation when causality is unclear, reversible decisions when outcomes are unknowable, portfolio approaches when any single strategy might fail randomly. Measure whether uncertainty capabilities differ from risk management skills, testing performance in simulated novel scenarios versus routine risk mitigation.
Velocity recognition in decision-making:
RUPT’s emphasis on “Rapid” change and VUCA’s “Volatility” both acknowledge that decision-making timelines have compressed. By the time the comprehensive analysis is complete, conditions have shifted. Implement explicit “decision velocity tiers”: immediate calls based on incomplete information for fast-changing situations, thorough analysis for slower-moving domains, and meta-processes that determine which tier applies. Like distinguishing when to walk versus wait for the bus, recognise that identical decision frameworks don’t suit all volatility levels. Document whether velocity-appropriate decision processes produce better outcomes than uniformly deliberate or uniformly rapid approaches, regardless of context.
Further reading
On VUCA and uncertainty frameworks:
VUCA is described in depth here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VUCA
BANI: Facing the Age of Chaos by Jamais Cascio (2020, online). Introduction of Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, Incomprehensible framework as evolution beyond VUCA, emphasising psychological and systemic fragility in modern conditions.
Navigating DisRUPTion with RUPT by Center for Creative Leadership. Framework emphasising Rapid, Unpredictable, Paradoxical, Tangled characteristics requiring adaptive leadership responses to accelerating environmental changes.
On complexity and non-linear systems:
Thinking in Systems: A Primer by Donella H. Meadows (Chelsea Green Publishing, 2008). Essential introduction to systems thinking including non-linear relationships, feedback loops, and why complex systems produce unexpected outcomes from simple interventions.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Random House, 2007). Examination of rare, high-impact events and why complex systems generate outcomes beyond our predictive models, relevant for understanding genuine uncertainty versus manageable risk.
Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Random House, 2012). Framework for building systems that benefit from volatility and uncertainty rather than merely resisting them, practical approach to thriving in VUCA/BANI conditions.
On navigating uncertainty:
The Upside of Uncertainty: A Guide to Finding Possibility in the Unknown by Nathan Furr and Susannah Harmon Furr (Harvard Business Review Press, 2022). Research-based strategies for navigating genuine uncertainty including when to persist versus pivot, relevant for RUPT’s emphasis on rapid change.
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers by John Kay and Mervyn King (W.W. Norton, 2020). Distinguishes between quantifiable risk and genuine uncertainty where probabilities cannot be calculated, arguing most important decisions involve the latter.
Simple Rules: How to Thrive in a Complex World by Donald Sull and Kathleen M. Eisenhardt (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2015). Evidence that simple heuristics often outperform complex analysis in volatile environments, practical approach to VUCA/BANI conditions where comprehensive planning becomes impossible.
About the image
I used to play a lot of Scrabble, but not so much these days. It felt fun to include a couple of blank tiles rather than spelling out all of the acronyms.
Photo and Photo Montage Matt Ballantine 2026
Random the Book 